ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE TRADE WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA ON GLOBAL TRADE
Keywords:
Trade war, Global Trade, Supply Chain, Developing CountriesAbstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of the trade war between the United States and China on global trade, focusing on trade volume, supply chain disruptions, and the response of developing countries. The trade war that began in 2018 was marked by tit-for-tat tariffs between the two countries that caused significant disruption to the international trade order. The research method used is a descriptive-quantitative approach by relying on secondary data from international institutions such as the WTO, IMF, and UNCTAD. The results of the study show that the trade war directly reduced the volume of bilateral trade between the US and China and slowed down overall global trade growth. The global supply chain experienced massive relocation and reorganization, especially in the manufacturing and technology sectors, resulting in increased production costs and logistical uncertainty. Developing countries such as Vietnam, Mexico, and several Southeast Asian countries benefited from industrial relocation, but also faced structural challenges. On the other hand, the emergence of protectionist trends and the formation of new trading blocs reflect long-term transformations in the global economic system. These findings confirm that the impact of the trade war is systemic and is pushing the world towards a more fragmented and competitive trade configuration.
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